Putin’s war planes approach Alaska and Canada 6

Is Putin testing Obama’s “flexibility“?

In Obamaspeak, “flexible” doesn’t mean compromising a little, bending to some extent; it means being willing to act in an unprincipled way, even perhaps to the extent of acting against one’s country’s interests.

Fox News reports:

Bx-WGODCEAA0rSi

An F-22 fighter jet

Two U.S. F-22 fighter jets intercepted six Russian military airplanes that were flying near Alaska, military officials said Friday.

Lt. Col. Michael Jazdyk, a spokesman for the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, said the jets intercepted the planes about 55 nautical miles from the Alaskan coast at about 7 p.m. Pacific time Wednesday.

Tensions are high between the United States and Russia as the two countries are increasingly at odds over Ukraine, where Russian-backed insurgents have been fighting for control of parts of the country.

The Russian planes were identified as two IL-78 refueling tankers, two Mig-31 fighter jets and two Bear long-range bombers. They looped south and returned to their base in Russia after the U.S. jets were scrambled.

At about 1:30 a.m. Thursday, two Canadian CF-18 fighter jets intercepted two of the long-range Russian Bear bombers about 40 nautical miles off the Canadian coastline in the Beaufort Sea.

In both cases, the Russian planes entered the Air Defense Identification Zone, which extends about 200 miles from the coastline. They did not enter sovereign airspace of the United States or Canada.

Jazdyk said the fighter jets were scrambled “basically to let those aircraft know that we see them, and in case of a threat, to let them know we are there to protect our sovereign airspace.”

In the past five years, jets under NORAD’s command have intercepted more than 50 Russian bombers approaching North American airspace.

NORAD is a binational American and Canadian command responsible for air defense in North America.

What is Putin’s intention? Why does he think he can do this?

We found answers to those question in this article by J. E. Dyer at Liberty Unyielding. Commander Jennifer Dyer is a retired US Naval intelligence officer who served for 21 years. Her articles deal with important military issues and are invariably well-informed and interesting.

Russian bombers proliferate today in the air space off North America and Europe, operating at an activity level not seen since the very height of the Cold War.  This isn’t something to shrug off.

Although it’s certainly attributable to Vladimir Putin’s current, proximate geopolitical intentions – to defy NATO, press his aggression against Ukraine, and intimidate the Baltic Republics – it’s also an expression of strategic posture harking back to the conventions of the Cold War.

Bringing out the Bears is a strategic signal.  In Europe, the Russians could use Tu-160 Blackjacks and Tu-22M Backfire bombers to fly aggressive routes around the northern perimeter.  The Blackjacks (sometimes called the “B-1-ski”) are understood to have a strategic role; the shorter-range Backfires, as dedicated bombers rather than multi-role aircraft, send a similarly aggressive signal.

But the Tu-95 Bear H bombers have for decades been the backbone of the airborne leg of Russia’s strategic “triad”:  ICBMs, ballistic-missile submarines, and nuclear-armed bombers.  When Russia deploys Bear Hs, the strategic signal is unmistakable.

Americans watching the drama unfold have a visceral sense of this, in part because the media routinely refer to the Bear Hs as “nuclear bombers.”  The Bear Hs are more properly called long-range bombers or strategic bombers; they may or may not be carrying missiles with nuclear warheads.  The aircraft are capable of carrying AS-15 “Kent” long-range cruise missiles, which were designed to be fitted with nuclear warheads, but they won’t necessarily have them mounted on a given flight. …

The post-Cold War status quo involved three fundamental features:  a mutual (U.S. and Russia) stand-down of constantly-ready nuclear forces, which occurred in the early 1990s… ; verifiable adherence by both sides to the basic elements of our arms control agreements; and continuity in the strategic postures of both parties.

The last feature was the first one to be decisively breached … Through a series of actions from 2009 to 2013, the Obama administration overturned the premise on which, for the preceding 25 years, the U.S. had negotiated for arms control and proposed to guarantee global stability.

In 1983, Reagan established missile defense, and not mutual assured destruction, as the basis for U.S. security and global stability. … Although Obama has not publicly repudiated the U.S. missile defense posture, he has dismantled it with a series of policy actions.  All but a few thousand Americans, at most, are unaware of this arcane reality – but Russian decision-makers perceive it quite clearly. …

The Russians for their own reasons have long disputed America’s missile defense-based policy.  Obama’s unilateral decision to give it up has cut the whole strategic stability situation adrift, and the Russians in 2014 are happy to take advantage of that.

Regarding the other two features of the post-Cold War status quo, Russia has been engaging in violations of both START and the INF treaty for some time now; the Bush and Clinton administrations made an issue of that, but the Obama administration has not given it importance, and violations by Moscow have become more egregious.

The US and Russia signed a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) in 1910. The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was signed by the US and the Soviet Union way back in 1987.

The weak performance of this one feature would be more tolerable if the other two were in line.  But in addition to the slow, bureaucratic collapse of the U.S. posture under Obama, Russia has since 2010 opened the door to breaching the third feature:  the stand-down of ready nuclear forces.  In 2010, Russia modified her national security strategy to permit preemptive use of nuclear weapons – a change to a policy that had stood since before the Berlin Wall fell in 1989.

Then, about three weeks ago, Russia publicly floated a threat through the common method of quoting a retired general in the state-run media.  This general, Yuri Yakubov (formerly the commander of Russia’s Far Eastern military district and a senior staffer in the ministry of defense), had an ominous message. Interfax quotes Retired Army General Yuri Yakubov as saying:

[The national military strategy] for the country should in the first place clearly identify the potential enemy of Russia, which is not in the military doctrine of 2010. In my view, our main enemy is the United States and the North Atlantic bloc [NATO].

In particular, in my opinion, you need to carefully consider the forms and methods of the operation of Aerospace Defence, in close cooperation with strategic nuclear deterrence forces, the Strategic Missile Forces, strategic aviation and the Navy. Thus it is necessary to study the conditions under which Russia could use the Russian strategic nuclear forces (SNF) pre-emptively.

The preemptive use of nuclear weapons implies readiness to employ them quickly, against preselected targets. …

Russia would feel much more constrained about nuclear tough talk if the United States were setting and enforcing boundaries.  But we’re not It’s essential to understand this.

Putin has his current, proximate reasons for wanting to convey threats to the U.S. and NATO – reasons having to do with perceived Russian interests in South Asia, the Far East, and the Eastern Mediterranean as much as with Eastern Europe.  But Russia wouldn’t be going high order with the overt strategic signals – the aggressive Bear flights – if Putin thought he was going to get real pushback from Washington …

Putin is pulling a really big weapon, with the accelerating implications that he feels free to break away from the post-Cold War strategic status quo.  This pattern, if nothing else, should be a clue to his seriousness.

But there are other gathering clues, such as the reports in just the last couple of weeks about frankly threatening comments he has made to European leaders.  …

Putin made [the following] statement during a conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko, who in turn, relayed his words to European Commission (EC) President Jose Manuel Barroso, during the latter’s visit to Kyiv last Friday (12 September), in which Poroshenko briefed the EU chief on threats.

If I want, Russian troops in two days could not only be in Kyiv, but also Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw and Bucharest.

Putin is burning bridges by doing this.  He is clearly not trying to hold out hope of a restored status quo.

And that in turn means that the “push” has started: the push from a former stakeholder that will cause the status quo to fully collapse.

An F-22 from the 302d Fighter Squadron at Elmendorf AFB, AK intercepts a Russian Tu-95MS Bear H. (USAF image

An F-22 from the 302d Fighter Squadron at Elmendorf AFB, AK intercepts a Russian Tu-95MS Bear H. (USAF image)

  • Don L

    There is no warning of this Russian threat from our “public-servants” on any of our military or intelligence committees; from either the House or Senate. There is no “public-servant” outrage about the increasing threats from China or the Jihadists. General military officers are not prone to fall on their swords if they know the “public servants” will not act on their sacrifice. And, though a few “public-servants” point, correctly, at Obama as the direct cause of this growing danger to America, NONE even breach the idea of removing Obama from office. Why?

    Why won’t these “public-servants” act to save America and remove Obama from the position from which he is aiding and abetting the enemies? Because “public-servant” and “career-politician” are mutually exclusive and there are only “career-politicians”!!! They are organized into “parties” that only compromise when it’s to further the entrenchment of incumbency. Everything a politician, masquerading as a “public-servant”, does is toward re-election.

    They have wasted the wealth and future productivity of the Union on all manner of patronage and crony capitalistic falderal. They have no compunction against committing fraud and extortion toward feathering their political party’s or their personal campaign nest…all surreptitiously legalized of course. Hard decisions are not in the cards. Obfuscating, misdirecting and outright lying are their tools. Doing the right thing…LOL!

    Defeated from within is the real danger today. Is it too late? It may be a race between getting America to wake up and Russia’s clean-nuke pre-emptive 1st strikes. I think I’m going to get an estimate on a 1960’s style bomb shelter. Construction will start, or not, after the 2014 mid-terms. Our only hope is that Obama-care, the beheadings and enough general fear is building that polls drive career-politician action. Career-politicians NEVER act against party, perilous, or real spontaneous popular demands.

    (Dr Strangelove) We’ll meet again, don’t know where don’t know when…

    • liz

      Yes, it’s a toss up who will strike first – the Russians, the Muslims, the Chinese, the North Koreans, or our own leftist in the White House declaring himself president for life (for the sake of saving the planet, of course).

      • Burro

        Vlad the Putin impaler is testing the US. Obama is lost in the chess game, playing checkers while Impaler moves to check.

        Take three divisions to the border of Poland, three more to cover the Baltics, and then erect a central European sub-EU compact from Poland in the North to Moldova in the South. Call his bluff. He looks weak and worried by the recent events.

        Then announce an offer to include Russia in discussions to “secure central Europe” and bombard the airwaves with positive propaganda re: the US. Send a diplomatic mission to China to announce the US will buy Chinese debt and surround the Impaler from the South……………..then never forget Russia has always been invaded from the East through Poland using the Ukraine as the resource supplier so it is almost inevitable Ukraine will be partially chopped up. But put 3,000 soldiers with drones in the Western section and the Impaler will back off. He is good, but not perfect.

        Our problem is the amateur in the White House more prone to growing orgasmics in his own garden than staring down aggressors. Where is Churchill when you need him? Or my own favourite, Attila the Hun, and, of course, Caligula………

        There is only so much tending to the Chicago ghettos can teach you, or for that matter the crew of BO’s past guides.

        On a more cheerful note: Nomatter is on her way: she is out of her holiday hotel so all will be well (Don El #268 search the site for Nomatter). I think we are getting all too serious here.

        The Burro

        • liz

          Amateur is right – and he calls ISIS “the JV team”.
          He’s delusional.

        • Don L

          Caligula…LOL! I sorta liked the innovation and initiative of Hannibal.

          Yes, I would have already set the heavy lift components to work moving the 3rd thru 7th (?) Armored Divs to the Balkans and Poland along with the new mod Patriot Brigades and necessary air assets.

          I’d also have sent an equivalent force to Irag to wipe Isis and Assad; then pivot to eradicate Iran’s nuke program…arming any Iranian counter groups while there. Then march them east to take care of the sub-saharan and N african idiots . As long as we are doing wish lists.

          Buy China’s debt…I’m not sure who gets hurt in that deal.

          Sorry…a site search of Nomatter came back with nada. Is she related to Whatever or Takeiteasy? Both from Carefree.

          I’m sure our actual military folk have plans to deal with with “Palin can see him Putin”. And, how come your nose isn’t still buried in P’s puddles of data? This was humor!!!

          • Burro

            Cor blimey! Up to me nosebag in numbers from P!

            No matter DID exist – she was discovered in the newspapers in South Africa (how appropriate as in going South) by Casey Research, who then published the story in one of the regular missives on its site. I tracked it by finding a Zimbabwean paper with a story but it was a year or so ago. Try her African name on Google.

            Watch out Don El #268! Offend NM and be prepared for hideous consequences – she may turn you into a Democrat with no hands – a fate worse than death as you will be unable to stick your mits into other people’s pockets to seize their loot.

            Why Chinese debt? Well, China is rather imploding at present. The US seen buying its debt would be a great feather in the cap of the Governing chappies and a kick in the toutsie to the Ruskies, who presently have only enough loot to afford one new palace for the great leader per year. It would also be shock to many as the US is, after all, THE debt issuer.

            Yes, indeed, the markets in China are showing distinct signs of stress – house prices falling in almost all major cities – major banks showing signs of failure and even members of the highest ranks of the princelings are getting done in for corruption. Interest rates jumping all over the place etc. However, the key indicator of stress for The Burro is the CACOORE inde – the Chinese All Cash Offer on Real Estate index. In the last month it reached a new high of 9 – ie in the last month 9 persons/offers of “All Cash have been made to The Burro. Now these are not “All Cash” as in the traditional sense of hold an escrow, get paid with no loans on the buyer’s side, but……….hello Mista Borrow. Ah, we, ah have de suitcase and mucha goot money for goot rehall estate. We meet in Starbucks, OK? ( is a sign the rats are bailing………………..

            The Burro disdains this practice and warns readers to watch out, especially if “Starbucks, ok?” in in Watts…………..

            Hannibal………….didn’t think of him but I believe he had a fine fetish for elephants. Must have been British – stiff upper trunk etc etc.

            I do like the idea of a Central European block. This has also been picked up by George Friedman of Stratfor too, and he has some excellent ideas on it.

            Only ten pages today.

            Off to chase some tail (or other).

            The Burro