Questions:

To what extent are Iran’s foreign policy and nuclear program owned by Ahmadinejad?

If he fell from power, would there be any significant change in Iran’s relations with America, or in its determination and effort to become nuclear armed, and to annihilate the state of Israel?

Do the mullahs, whose authority continues while presidents come and go, intend any changes?

We may learn the answers if this report from DebkFile is true:

Ahmadinejad … is on his last legs as president. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has stripped him of most of his powers and shut the door against his having any political future. …

His loyalists have been deserting him in droves since he went to New York to deliver an address to the UN General Assembly on Sept. 23. The Supreme Leader used his absence for the coup de grace: The removal of the president’s loyalists from the list of 4,000 contenders running for seats in parliament (the Majlis) next March.

That was easily arranged: Khameini handed his orders to Ayatollah Mohammad Kani, head of the Assembly of Experts, which In the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for screening all contenders for office. He was told to disqualify all the president’s associates. So, in the next Majlis, Ahmadinejad will be shorn of a loyal faction and any buddies sticking to him when his second presidential term runs out in May 2013 will be out of a job. …

If there is to be change, it may not be for the better. Ahmadinejad’s probable successors, according to the report, are “hardliners”. But could they be even worse than Ahmadinejad? Can a plan be devised more aggressive than nuclear war?

Frontrunners for future president most mentioned recently are two hardliners, Majils Speaker Ali Larijani, a former senior nuclear negotiator with the West, and ex-foreign minister Ali Akhbar Veliyati, who is a member of Khamenei’s kitchen cabinet as senior adviser on international relations.

They will have to be patient.

The betting in Tehran is that the Supreme Leader will not actually sack Ahmadinejad but let him last out his term as yesterday’s man, lame duck in political isolation.

So we in the West, and the people of Iran, must also wait patiently for May 2013 to enjoy the downfall of Ahmadinejad, for a fleeting moment before the unimaginable worse becomes apparent.